From The Rock

Carolina Panthers’ quarterback Jake Delhomme is having a season he’d like to forget, and things got even worse on Sunday at home against the Buffalo Bills. Despite dominating the Bills on the stat sheet, Delhomme threw three interceptions that allowed Buffalo to take a 20-9 victory over the struggling Panthers. Delhomme threw for 325 yards, though without any touchdowns. His three picks pushed his total for the year to- which leads the NFL.

Buffalo rewarded NFL pointspread players with the outright victory as +7 road underdogs. The Bills have covered four of their seven games this season, while the Panthers have an awful record against the spread-they’ve only covered once this season for a 1-5 ATS mark.

The Bills’ Terrell Owens was again a non-factor, but gave credit to the defense for earning the victory:

“You can’t really complain about a win. Defensively, those guys are keeping us in ballgames.”

Buffalo defensive end Chris Kelsay commended his team’s performance on the road:

“Never once on the sidelines was there any doubt that we were going to win the game. Regardless if it’s an ugly win over not, it’s hard to win in this league.”

Ryan Fitzpatrick started at QB for Buffalo in place of the injured Trent Edwards and was solid, if not spectacular. Coach Dick Jauron observed:

“He made the plays when we had to make them.”

Panthers’ coach John Fox has said he’s going to’re-evaluate’ whether the struggling Delhomme should continue to start, and even the quarterback himself couldn’t make an emphatic case that he should keep his job:

“In my heart, yeah, but I mean let’s be honest, I don’t think I’m a dummy. When you’re not playing well offensively, you always have to look at the quarterback.”

The Panthers’ schedule doesn’t get easier this week as they head west for a game against the improving Arizona Cardinals. Carolina is a +9 road underdog with the total set at 43′. They’ll head south the following week to face the red hot New Orleans Saints before returning home on November 15 to take on the Atlanta Falcons. Buffalo will host the Houston Texans this weekend, with the game currently off the board due to injuries on both teams. They’ll have their bye week after that and will return to action on November 15 against the Tennessee Titans.

Ross Everett is a widely published freelance sports writer and highly respected authority on sports betting odds comparison. He writing has appeared on a variety of sports sites including sportsbooks and betting odds portal sites. He lives in Southern Nevada with three Jack Russell Terriers and an emu. He is currently working on an autobiography of former energy secretary Donald Hodell.

Betting on sports ‘futures’ is an enjoyable and potentially profitable way to wager, but there are several potential risks that can lead to losses. Here’s a rundown of things to avoid:

Search for the best price: A common mistake is to assume that the price on a specific futures wager position will be the same at every sportsbook. Nothing could be further from the truth. In fact, you’ll often see a greater degree of difference between futures prices from book to book than any other form of bet. This is because that books aren’t as worried about what price other outfits are offering as they are about keeping their own financial position balanced.

Don’t fixate on picking the winner from a competitive field: This may sound like strange advice, but from a theoretical standpoint it makes perfect sense. As with every other element of sport wagering its crucial to always focus not on winners and losers, but on the value you’re getting on individual bets. For example, in most years there are several teams with a realistic shot of winning at the start of the NCAA basketball tournament. The problem is that these top teams invariably offer low paybacks that are less than their ‘true odds’ of winning. Every team is subject to the same variables like injuries, slumps, bad matchups but backing teams that are ‘under the radar’ at higher prices offer more compensation for these ‘risks’.

In mathematical terms, we’re simply not being offered odds on a favorite that offer a good value in comparison with the ‘true odds’ of the event occurring. Let’s say we bet Duke at +200 to win the NCAA tournament. If we could magically play the NCAA tournament over 100 times, would Duke come out on top more than 33 times? If not, they’re a poor value at the price. At a higher price, I might be interested but at +200 the value is simply not there.

Note that the more competitive the market, the more difficult it is to find good value on a favorite. In a smaller field, or in a field with one dominant competitor it can be easier. For example, say the UFC were to have a tournament involving heavyweight champion Brock Lesnar and three male figure skaters. Even if Lesnar was slightly injured, or not at the top of his game he’d essentially have a 100% chance of beating the smaller, effeminate men who are untrained to fight. If a book installed Lesnar as a -1000 favorite in this spot, it could still be considered a good value. It’s never easy to risk a lot to win a little, but from strictly a mathematical standpoint it makes sense.

Don’t go for the big killing: Sports wagering is not a good arena in which to make a ‘big killing’. It may happen from time to time, but it is extremely rare. A perennial doormat can come out of nowhere to win a championship at a big price, but the fact that it happens from time to time doesn’t make it a good value. If you’re a recreational player and want to throw a few dollars at a big long shot, no real harm. If you aspire to any degree of seriousness as a sports better, however, you need to maintain your discipline and commitment to value at all times. If you want to hit a big jackpot play the lottery or the slot machines, but don’t try to do it in a sports betting paradigm.

On a more theoretical level, a big price alone is no way to justify a wager. The concept of value works the same at the bottom of the barrel as it does at the top: make sure the price you’re getting on an underdog accurately reflects their “true odds” of winning.

Don’t bet one-sided futures or propositions: Though many of these are not futures per se, a lot of sportsbooks offer silly propositions on nonsport events as a way to get publicity, or just to be funny. Its important to make a distinction between this type of silly bet and more realistic nonsport propositions which frequently present good wagering value. Im talking the really outlandish stuff here. Not too long ago, a sportsbook posted a line on Martians landing on earth and painting the White House red by the end of the year. The “YES” was +2500 or thereabouts, which is far from reflective of the “true odds” of this unlikely event. Even if you’re the type that collects classic Art Bell shows on tape and believes in UFOs you wouldn’t place the probability of this happening at more than a fraction of a percent. The book only offered the “YES” side of the proposition, meaning that you couldn’t lay even a huge price on the more likely outcome. Another book had a futures offering for what would happen first with Ashton Kutcher, Demi Moore and Bruce Willis. All of the options were very unlikely–Ashton and Bruce fighting on PPV and my favorite–and the longest odds–Ashton, Bruce and Demi hopping in bed together and releasing a porno video documenting the event. You’d receive a sizable payback if any of the events ever transpired, but I’m not exactly sure how to compute the “true odds” on “when pigs fly.

Ross Everett is a freelance sports writer and respected authority on sports betting odds comparison. He writing has appeared on a variety of sports sites including sports news and betting odds portal sites. He lives in Southern Nevada with three Jack Russell Terriers and an emu. He is currently working on an autobiography of former interior secretary James Watt.

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Brett Favre and the Minnesota Vikings are undefeated no more. The Pittsburgh Steelers’ used a couple of big plays from their defense in the fourth quarter to break open a close game and defeat the Vikings by a final score of 27-17. Favre put up decent yardage in the loss, throwing for 334 yards but had no touchdowns and an interception. The defending Superbowl Champion Steelers improved to 5-2, while the Vikings are now 6-1.

NFL pointspread players who backed the Steelers as -6 home favorites were rewarded with the cover. Pittsburgh had only covered one of their first six games heading into the contest, and the win improved their record against the number to 2-5. Minnesota dropped to 4-3 against the spread with the setback. The 44 points scored went UNDER the posted total of 46′.

The Steelers largely shut down Minnesota’s rushing game, holding Adrian Peterson to 69 yards. Pittsburgh safety Ryan Clark underscored his team’s dominance against the run:

“That’s the biggest point of the game. You have the best running back in the world and you don’t give it to him. They’re saying they can’t beat us running, and that’s a major statement when you have the guy they have back there.”

Favre gave a mealy mouthed justification for the loss in his postgame interview:

“There were a lot of what ifs, a lot of reasons we didn’t win. The red zone was one of them. They’re physical, and they were as good as we thought they’d be. … When I came here and looked at our schedule and saw the Steelers game, I went, ‘Oh-h-h.’ ”

Favre has only thrown three interceptions in a Vikings’ uniform, but #3 was a costly one as it was returned by Steelers’ Keyaron Fox for a touchdown to put the game out of reach as Minnesota was driving for a potential game tying field goal. Afterwards, Fox recalled the play:

“Brett tried to force it in there and the running back bobbled it and slipped out of his hands and it fell into my lap. I had just run across the field after Peterson and I was winded, so it felt like it was 100-plus yards.”

The Vikings now face another big game next week as they head to Favre’s old stomping grounds in Green Bay for a battle with the Packers. It’ll be Favre’s first appearance at his old home in an enemy uniform. The Vikings are a +3 road underdog with the total set at 48. The Vikings will then have a bye weekend before hosting the lowly Detroit Lions on November 15. Pittsburgh will enjoy a bye week this week before returning to action on Monday, November 9th facing the Denver Broncos on the road.

Ross Everett is a freelance sports writer specializing in casino gambling, entertainment and sports betting. He has appeared on a number of TV and radio programs offering strategies for successful NFL football betting. He lives in Las Vegas, Nevada with three Jack Russell Terriers and a pet llama. He is currently writing a biography of former NFL quarterback Ryan Leaf.

The Miami Dolphins are coming of one of the greatest one season turn around’s in NFL history, 1-15 in 07′, 11-5 in 08′ with a AFC East Division title. Things seem a bit different so far this year.

Things didn’t look too much brighter entering the 2008 season, nor did they look much better for Chad Pennington. Regardless, the Dolphins somehow pulled it together and became the Cinderella football team of 2008.

The duo of Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams really came together. This opened up a ton of room for Chad Pennington as well. Anthony Fasano also stepped up as one of the top TE’s in the league. What a year it was!

Things looked promising for 2009, until the Dolphins lost their first three games. Things looked even worse, when during their third game, the team lost Pennington for the season.

Young and inexperienced second year QB Chad Henne was called upon to lead the team, which didn’t really bode well for the Dolphins’ chances.

Seven points scored in a game against an average Falcons defense raised questions about the Dolphins’ offense and their effectiveness. It’s going to be a long season if they don’t get it right.

The Dolphins won the division in 08′, but New England’s QB Tom Brady was out the entire year and New York Jets QB Brett Favre was also hurt in the second half of the season – now, the rest of the division has improved. The Dolphins have more questions then answers at this point.

It’s a very long football season, and the Dolphins are well within the game. Chad Henne is a skilled quarterback who seems to look better every week. Maybe he’ll surprise the NFL world like Pennington did last season.

For more Dolphins chatter, check out the Miami Dolphins forum and create your own sports polls all at RootZoo Sports.